ChirpBlog

Talking sleepers doesn’t necessarily mean only opining on super unheard-of players. There is just too much information out there these days for any hitter to be a true sleeper. However, there are plenty of undervalued hitters from the Top 50 through the 400s. We have eight of the best 2023 fantasy baseball hitting sleepers, consisting of all types, giving you plenty of values to target on draft day.

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Check out our 8 pitcher sleepers here.

Hitting Sleepers

Gunnar Henderson, 3B, BAL — Jake Ciely

I’m not going quite as deep as many of the other picks you’ll see because 1) I believe my pick is underrated at current ADP/value and 2) we need to cater to everyone from the casual to hardcore players. Henderson has limited MLB experience with just 21 games, but his power/speed combo is appealing when third base is fairly top-heavy. Henderson will have a middling average, but he should push for 70+ Runs and RBI, 20-ish homers and around 10 steals. With his plate discipline, Henderson gets a nice OBP-league boost. Don’t be surprised if Henderson pushes for the Top 10 at third base and Rookie of the Year honors.

Bryan De La Cruz, OF, MIA — Chris Welsh

In just about half a season’s work, De La Cruz put up 13 home runs and four stolen bases. Simple math can get you to where you need to go on a full season’s work. What I found fascinating about him was his eerily similar Savant page to Teoscar Hernandez: 95th percentile xSLG for Hernandez and 94th for De La Cruz. You will also find quite a few areas like xBA and xWOBA where De La Cruz was better. Though they share some of the negatives like strikeout rate and walks, you can see a future statistical path for De La Cruz in a current major leaguer. The one area lacking is De La Cruz doesn’t hit the ball quite as hard as Teoscar. We saw a 53.3% hard-hit rate for Hernandez in 2022, compared to 47.3 for De La Cruz. Without any increase or positive change, he already projected out as nearly a 25-home run, 10-stolen base guy over a full season, based on 2022. De La Cruz is coming in at a post-200 ADP, and is someone to target at a not-so-deep outfield spot.

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, COL — Greg Jewett

Tovar may not be the target for many at middle infield, but he’s one of only 13 shortstops projected for 13 home runs and 12 stolen bases by THE BAT X. Better news, he’s playing half of his games at Coors Field. Seeing him projected as the ninth batter caps the upside for runs. However, his on-base acumen, illustrated by his 38.7 on-base percentage in the minors last year, may pave the way for hitting first or second as the season progresses. If he hits .260 or better, with 60+ runs and 25 home runs plus stolen bases, he’s a worthy target at his price point.

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Kyle Stowers, OF, BAL — Michael Waterloo

Yeah, we all love Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but you haven’t truly felt alive until you land Stowers with the 400th pick. If you’re reading this now, you should feel lucky, because his ADP is only going to climb the closer we get to the season. Stowers is a left-handed slugger who should be impacted by the dimensions in Baltimore. He can spray the ball all over, but he’s more of a pull-power guy. As a lefty, he has reverse splits, as he hit better against left-handed pitching in Triple-A last year. If he can post a sub-30K%, he has sneaky 25-home run power and run-producing ability in an improved lineup.

Riley Greene, OF, DET — Al Melchior

In his first exposure to major league pitching, Greene showed raw power, averaging 95.6 mph in exit velocity on fly balls and line drives. Greene homered just five times in 418 plate appearances, and a 28.7% strikeout rate was partially to blame. Given Greene’s high strikeout rates in the minors, we shouldn’t expect significant improvement there, but his 56.0% ground-ball rate was uncharacteristically high. Perhaps being a year removed from the foot fracture that delayed his major league debut will help him to produce more power and speed — he was just 1-for-5 in stolen base attempts in his rookie season. If all goes well, Greene could be a 20-10 player who is slated to hit in the upper portion of an admittedly subpar Tigers lineup.

Miguel Vargas, 2B, LAD — John Laghezza

The loss of superstar Trea Turner created a massive playing time void in the Dodgers infield. While I was initially slow to react, those plate appearances now seem increasingly likely to go to Miguel Vargas. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden recently reported Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman said Vargas could open 2023 as the club’s primary second baseman. At only 23 years old, the Dodgers prospect already has nothing left to prove in MiLB, coming off a monster season for a second baseman (.304/100/82/17/16) with a career 600-PA pace of (.313/115/99/28/17). The formula’s simple enough: potential plus opportunity at a low price point (ADP around 300).

Max Kepler, OF, MIN — Mike Kurland

Apparently, I am a glutton for punishment as I am banging the Max Kepler drum again. The underlying skills, cost, the path to playing time and potential to gain at least a little something from the shift ban have me right back in. We know the plate approach is as strong as it gets, with the walk and strikeout rates being above average. This comes with a 90% Z-Contact rate and decent hard-hit metrics. He is likely to platoon, but it will be the strong side and when he does start, he usually finds himself toward the top of the Twins lineup. Fun stat: in 2022, he had a .296 wOBA on ground balls and line drives into the shift but the xwOBA on these balls was .381. I do think the shift ban might be overblown for hitters, but even if it slightly helps, it is just another box to check off as to why I continue to target him at cost. I emphasize “at cost” because we are talking about being able to draft him in the reserve rounds in early drafts — quite the discount compared to past seasons. I have no problem scooping him up and seeing where it goes.

Josh Naylor, 1B, CLE — Eno Sarris

The Guardians’ older Naylor had a breakout season last year, but nobody seems to believe it. Right now, he’s being taken after other first basemen like Andrew Vaughn, Ty France, Josh Bell, and Joey Meneses, but he has better batted ball stats than all of them. His barrel rate is higher than all of them save Meneses, and his raw power (judged by maximum exit velocity) is higher than all of them. Nate Lowe is going over 100 spots higher than him and Naylor has a similar Barrel rate, higher max EV, and lower swinging strike rate. And while Lowe hits the ball to the opposite field, lefty Naylor had the second-most hard line drives (90+ mph EV, 0-10 degrees launch angle) to the pull side last year among first basemen. That should lead to better outcomes now that there are different rules regarding the shift.

(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

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